The Federal Reserve is almost certainly going to keep interest rates unchanged at its March 18 FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds pointing to a 99% or higher probability of a hold. The two-day meeting begins on March 17, and the policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET on March 18, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
CME FedWatch data, as cited in an Investopedia summary published March 13, showed financial markets pricing in more than a 99% chance the Fed would keep policy unchanged. The headline figure of 99.2% reflects the near-total consensus among traders that a rate cut is not on the table this week.
The Federal Reserve’s official calendar confirms the March 17-18 meeting dates, with the FOMC statement release and press conference both scheduled for the afternoon of March 18.
Why Traders See No Case for a Cut This Week
A hold probability above 99% signals that virtually no market participant expects the Fed to ease policy at this meeting. The central bank has maintained a data-dependent stance throughout its inflation fight, and recent economic conditions have not provided the kind of clear softening that would justify a move.
Investors appear to be pushing back expectations for any near-term easing. Discussion among analysts has shifted toward whether persistent inflation pressures and energy prices could delay the next rate cut beyond June.
Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti noted that “the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) should be little changed,” suggesting the Fed’s own forecasts are unlikely to signal a policy pivot. That reinforces the view that this meeting will be a status-quo event.
Even with a hold all but locked in, the updated dot plot and economic projections released alongside the statement will give markets fresh data on where policymakers see rates heading through the rest of 2026.
What the Fed Decision Means for Crypto and Risk Assets
A rate hold at the March meeting is already fully priced in, which limits the immediate shock potential. But for crypto and broader risk assets, the real signal will come from the Fed’s tone, forward guidance, and any shifts in the projected rate path.
Interest rate expectations directly influence demand for risk assets like Bitcoin. Stable or high rates tend to keep liquidity conditions tight, which can weigh on speculative markets. Conversely, any hint that cuts are closer than expected could spark a relief rally across crypto.
Traders should watch the press conference closely. Powell’s language on inflation trajectory and the labor market will shape expectations for the May and June meetings, potentially moving Bitcoin and altcoin prices more than the hold itself.
Even a widely expected decision can generate short-term volatility. The 2:00 p.m. ET statement release and 2:30 p.m. press conference on March 18 are the key moments to watch for sudden moves in both traditional and crypto markets.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
