Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee predicted in February 2026 that the crypto winter would end by April at the latest, citing technical analysis from Tom DeMark. With April now days away, Bitcoin and Ethereum have both cleared the floor levels Lee identified, yet market sentiment remains locked in extreme fear.
The Exact Prediction Tom Lee Made in February
Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and Chairman of BitMine, made the call in February 2026. His statement was direct: “I think the crypto winter either ended already or it’s going to, the latest is April,” he said, citing technical analysis from Tom DeMark.
Lee attached specific price levels to the prediction. He identified Bitcoin support at $60,000 and placed Ethereum’s bottom at approximately $1,890, both derived from DeMark’s technical indicators.
Lee defined the end of crypto winter primarily through price floors rather than sentiment recovery. If BTC held above $60,000 and ETH above $1,890, the worst of the downturn was behind the market in his view.
BitMine, where Lee serves as Chairman, appeared to act on the thesis. Around the same time, the company expanded its ETH holdings to 4.37 million ETH and launched a $200 million strategic investment push.
Bitmine Momentum Jumps as Tom Lee Calls End to “Crypto Winter”
Tom Lee said the crypto downturn could end by April as Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc. expands its ETH holdings to 4.37M and ramps up a $200M strategic investment push. pic.twitter.com/8xuPrkOhJn
— Jessica Gonzales (@lil_disruptor) February 20, 2026
Source: @lil_disruptor on X
Why Lee Targeted April as the Turning Point
The April deadline was not arbitrary. Lee grounded the timeframe in Tom DeMark’s technical analysis framework, which uses sequential countdown indicators to identify trend exhaustion points. DeMark’s models suggested the zone where selling pressure would likely exhaust itself fell in the late Q1 to early Q2 window.
According to a single source, Lee made this February prediction prior to the Iran-Iraq conflict, which later introduced additional macro uncertainty into markets. In early March, he reportedly also forecast that equity markets would rise, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading crypto gains.
Lee’s track record adds weight to the call. He has been one of Wall Street’s more visible crypto bulls, and his observations about Bitcoin’s reset periods after pullbacks have drawn attention from institutional investors tracking cycle timing.
April Is Here: Prices Cleared Lee’s Floors, but Sentiment Has Not Followed
As of March 29, 2026, Bitcoin trades at $66,737, comfortably above Lee’s $60,000 support target. Ethereum sits at $2,001, also above his $1,890 bottom level.
By Lee’s own metric, the call looks defensible. Both assets have held above the technical floors he identified using DeMark’s indicators, and neither has revisited those levels since February.
The complication is sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 9, deep in Extreme Fear territory. That score suggests investors remain heavily pessimistic despite prices trading well above Lee’s predicted support zones.
This creates a split verdict. If “end of crypto winter” means prices stop falling and hold above key technical levels, Lee appears to have called it correctly. If it means a broader shift in market confidence, the Fear & Greed reading of 9 suggests that shift has not arrived.
Bitcoin’s 24-hour change of +0.6% and daily trading volume near $23 billion reflect a market that is consolidating rather than surging. There is no capitulation, but there is also no euphoria. The dynamics resemble what some analysts have described as a reset period rather than a definitive turning point.
The real test comes in the first weeks of April. Lee’s prediction carries a built-in deadline. If Bitcoin holds above $60,000 and Ethereum above $1,890 through April while sentiment begins to recover from single-digit Fear & Greed readings, the call will be difficult to dispute.
Institutional activity may provide the clearest signal. Developments like Hong Kong’s recent Web3 policy alliance and evolving prediction market infrastructure at major exchanges suggest the broader crypto ecosystem continues building through the downturn, even as retail sentiment lags.
For now, Lee’s February prediction stands at an inflection point: the price floors held, the deadline is arriving, and the only missing piece is whether investor confidence follows the technicals into recovery.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
