Key Takeaways:
- AI data center power demand could triple by 2035, straining infrastructure.
- BloombergNEF projects U.S. data centers may reach 106 GW by 2035.
- Electricity share may rise from 4% to between 6.7% and 12% by 2028.
President Donald Trump said AI energy demand could triple by 2035 and that tech firms may need to build their own power plants. The claim aligns with the direction of multiple forecasts, though the magnitude overshoots several published outlooks. According to BloombergNEF, U.S. data center power demand could reach 106 GW by 2035, underscoring the scale of growth.
Today’s data centers account for about 4% of U.S. electricity use, a share that could rise to roughly 6.7%–12% by 2028 as AI workloads scale, as reported by Le Monde. That trajectory suggests sharp load growth this decade even before considering longer-term deployment. The figures imply significant planning needs for generation, transmission, and reliability.
At the policy level, the White House is moving to the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, which would see large tech companies provide their own power for data centers, according to CNBC. The intent is to limit the pass-through of rising electricity costs to households and small businesses.
In practice, compliance could involve behind-the-meter generation, dedicated microgrids, or long-term power purchase agreements, with interconnection and permitting as gating items, according to the Brookings Institution. Cost allocation, who pays for grid upgrades and network charges, would remain a central question for regulators and utilities.
Grid operators are already signaling capacity constraints. PJM Interconnection expects electricity demand across its footprint could rise around 40% by 2039, driven in part by data center expansion. Private generation may ease local bottlenecks, but grid impacts and tariff design would still need careful review.
Debate over the near-term fuel mix is intensifying as developers seek firm power. ‘Coal plants can shoulder a heavier load’ of generation as AI data centers grow, said James Grech, CEO of Peabody Energy.
Clean energy advocates argue that scaling solar, wind, and storage is essential to meet surging demand without derailing climate goals, based on statements from LPPC. This path would still require expanded transmission and flexible resources to manage variability.
New nuclear capacity could contribute but is unlikely to meet all incremental needs; Deloitte estimates suggest it may cover only about 10% of data center power demand growth over the next decade, as summarized by The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. That places additional emphasis on gas, renewables, and storage in the 2020s.
Academic modeling highlights the uncertainty: under high-adoption scenarios, AI-related electricity use could rise by roughly a factor of 24 by 2030, according to arXiv-published research. Such ranges reinforce why permitting, interconnection, and cost-recovery rules will shape outcomes as much as technology choices.
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