Bitcoin steadies as futures show backwardation, ETF outflows

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin prints bullish bottom signal amid cautious derivatives positioning and ETF outflows.
• Futures show backwardation, rising shorts, weaker long leverage, reinforcing bearish pressure.
• Heavy MicroStrategy shorting framed as contrarian tailwind potentially supporting Bitcoin.

Bitcoin flashed a bullish cycle bottom signal before bouncing, even as derivatives positioning stayed cautious. According to CryptoSlate, capitulation markers emerged while spot ETFs recorded outflows, suggesting the base‑building phase may not be complete.

BeInCrypto reported that, despite attention on ETF outflows and softer prices, several constructive data trends continue to develop quietly. That divergence helps explain why spot can stabilize while risk metrics remain fragile.

On the derivatives side, AInvest highlighted futures backwardation, where contracts trade below spot, alongside rising short interest and fading long leverage, indicating bears are pressing through futures. In related equity proxies, Benzinga noted that heavy shorting of MicroStrategy has been framed by Tom Lee as a contrarian tailwind for Bitcoin.

In market structure terms, “bottom signals” tend to cluster around extreme oversold readings, forced liquidations, and sentiment washouts; together, these often precede base‑building. Bernstein has argued with reasonable confidence that late‑2025 levels likely marked a trough for digital assets, anchoring the view in cyclical behavior rather than near‑term momentum.

Balanced against that, CryptoQuant has warned that several on‑chain gauges, such as MVRV ratios, miner flows, and stablecoin liquidity, still lean bearish, implying broader liquidity may be needed before a durable upswing. Standard Chartered’s recent reduction of multi‑year projections also points to more conservative expectations for institutional demand via ETFs and corporate treasury programs.

This matters because futures pressure can mute rebounds after capitulation, extending sideways ranges before trend resolution. “Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins have reached a cycle bottom,” said Michaël van de Poppe, trader at MN Capital.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin traded near $66,547.90 within a day range of $63,874–$68,070 and a 52‑week range of $60,057–$126,273, based on data from CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (XBX). These contextual figures underscore why the $60,000–$70,000 zone remains pivotal for validating a prospective base.

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