Key Takeaways:
- Policy uncertainty and tariff volatility spur U.S. copper stockpiling and pre‑buying.
- U.S. premium over LME triggers COMEX–LME arbitrage and accelerated shipments.
- Speculators and tariff policy, not fundamentals, drive rally; premium could unwind.
The U.S. is stacking huge amounts of copper. The immediate drivers are policy uncertainty and pricing anomalies that make it attractive to move metal into American warehouses.
According to ING strategist Ewa Manthey, U.S. copper has been trading at a premium to London Metal Exchange prices, encouraging COMEX–LME arbitrage and front‑loading of shipments ahead of possible tariffs. That premium, coupled with importer pre‑buying, has accelerated inventory builds.
Policy signals have added to the rush. As reported by Business Insider, the White House unveiled “Project Vault,” a strategic critical‑minerals reserve initiative, while Yahoo Finance reported that a Supreme Court ruling recently scrambled the tariff landscape, both developments that keep trade costs uncertain.
Goldman Sachs has argued that tariff policy and speculative positioning, more than demand fundamentals, are propelling the U.S. copper rally; the bank also highlights the risk that any policy premium could unwind as legal and regulatory paths clarify.
These heaps are largely commercial and exchange inventories, COMEX‑registered warehouse metal and private stocks built by traders, distributors, and manufacturers. They are not the same as a formal, government‑operated strategic copper reserve, and should not be conflated with broader critical‑minerals initiatives like Project Vault.
“As reported by MarketScreener, COMEX‑registered warehouse stocks hit 402,876 short tons (~365,483 metric tons) in late November 2025, surpassing a record set in 2003. This level is equivalent to roughly 25% of U.S. annual consumption of refined copper.”
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence says the U.S. can meet roughly 146% of its refined‑copper needs through its own mines plus scrap, but warns that limited domestic refining and cathode capacity remain bottlenecks, meaning raw material may still be exported for processing even as inventories swell.
The build also isn’t risk‑free. Sprott notes that copper rushed into U.S. warehouses can become effectively “trapped” if the arbitrage closes or tariffs are rolled back, while some distributors report preemptive price increases to buffer potential duties and volatility.
At the time of this writing, Freeport‑McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) traded near $63.81 intraday, up about 0.29%, according to NYSE data. That market snapshot underscores how policy and inventory dynamics can intersect with publicly listed miners without constituting investment advice.
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