Existing-home sales stall as rate lock-in curbs supply

Key Takeaways:

• Google can’t sell house searches hit record; reflect stress, seasonality, not sales.
• Signal indicates affordability strains and rate lock-in, causing pricing and timing frictions.
• Surveys show sellers delaying moves; discomfort buying or selling reinforces lock-in, limiting listings.

Google searches for “can’t sell house” have reached an all-time high, based on data from Google Trends. Search spikes often reflect stress or curiosity, not transaction outcomes. The index measures relative interest and can exhibit seasonality.

Taken together, the signal points to homeowners feeling stuck amid housing affordability constraints and a mortgage rate lock-in dynamic. It implies frictions in pricing, financing, and timing rather than a broad market collapse, and it should not be read as a forecast.

According to Realtor.com, nearly two-thirds of would-be sellers reported waiting over a year to move, citing mortgage rates well above pandemic lows. That sentiment helps explain why listings can lag even when owners want to transact.

As reported by Bankrate, about 51% of homeowners said they would be uncomfortable buying another home this year regardless of rates, and 54% saw no current rate that would make them comfortable selling. Such views reinforce lock-in pressures and constrain resale supply.

According to Redfin, “Sales are falling through at a higher rate than in the past largely because it’s a buyer’s market, with sellers outnumbering buyers.” The report noted nearly 40,000 canceled home-sale agreements in January, equal to 13.7% of contracts, up from 13.1% a year earlier and the highest January share since 2017, with the rate highest in San Antonio.

The National Association of Realtors has described existing home sales as hovering near a 30-year low amid elevated mortgage rates and record prices. That backdrop aligns with rising seller uncertainty and longer decision timelines across many markets.

Following the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, borrowing costs remain elevated for many buyers and movers. Higher payments reduce housing affordability and amplify mortgage rate lock-in for owners who secured lower-cost loans earlier.

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