Key Takeaways:
- Whale accumulation provides a support base amid broader market uncertainty.
- Weak short-term demand curbs rebound attempts and caps upside potential.
- Rebounds remain limited as STH participation wanes despite whale support.
Bitcoinโs largest holders accumulated roughly 200,000 BTC over the past month, lifting whale balances above 3.1 million coins, as reported by CryptoSlate. At the same time, shortโterm demand has cooled, creating a divergence between largeโholder buying and broader market appetite.
Shortโterm holder profitability remains negative, according to Glassnode, indicating many recent buyers are underwater. These costโbasis clusters often form breakโeven walls that supply resistance into rebounds and can cap rally attempts.
Fresh capital has thinned while spot volumes remain subdued, as reported by Crypto.news. In such conditions, bounces tend to fade as overhead supply meets limited marginal demand, keeping the market reliant on larger players for support.
Institutional accumulation continues, MicroStrategy recently added about 2,486 BTC, according to Yahoo Finance. However, singleโentity purchases do not necessarily offset structural selling from weaker cohorts when liquidity and risk appetite are under pressure.
The latest accumulation implies large wallets are absorbing supply at prevailing levels, but without renewed shortโterm inflows the recovery path may stay uneven. Shortโterm cohorts commonly sell near cost when price reaches their breakโeven zones, reinforcing overhead resistance.
One onโchain analyst cautioned that whale activity does not guarantee nearโterm stability. โInflows typically reflect shortโterm behavior and can generate immediate selling pressure,โ said Darkfrost, analyst at CryptoQuant.
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin traded near $66,490, with 30โday volatility around 11.97% and a 14โday RSI near 35.8. Price remains below the 50โ and 200โday simple moving averages, about $83,803 and $100,301, which can reinforce resistance until demand strengthens.
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