Key Takeaways:
- Whale accumulation provides a support base amid broader market uncertainty.
- Weak short-term demand curbs rebound attempts and caps upside potential.
- Rebounds remain limited as STH participation wanes despite whale support.
Bitcoin’s largest holders accumulated roughly 200,000 BTC over the past month, lifting whale balances above 3.1 million coins, as reported by CryptoSlate. At the same time, short‑term demand has cooled, creating a divergence between large‑holder buying and broader market appetite.
Short‑term holder profitability remains negative, according to Glassnode, indicating many recent buyers are underwater. These cost‑basis clusters often form break‑even walls that supply resistance into rebounds and can cap rally attempts.
Fresh capital has thinned while spot volumes remain subdued, as reported by Crypto.news. In such conditions, bounces tend to fade as overhead supply meets limited marginal demand, keeping the market reliant on larger players for support.
Institutional accumulation continues, MicroStrategy recently added about 2,486 BTC, according to Yahoo Finance. However, single‑entity purchases do not necessarily offset structural selling from weaker cohorts when liquidity and risk appetite are under pressure.
The latest accumulation implies large wallets are absorbing supply at prevailing levels, but without renewed short‑term inflows the recovery path may stay uneven. Short‑term cohorts commonly sell near cost when price reaches their break‑even zones, reinforcing overhead resistance.
One on‑chain analyst cautioned that whale activity does not guarantee near‑term stability. “Inflows typically reflect short‑term behavior and can generate immediate selling pressure,” said Darkfrost, analyst at CryptoQuant.
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin traded near $66,490, with 30‑day volatility around 11.97% and a 14‑day RSI near 35.8. Price remains below the 50‑ and 200‑day simple moving averages, about $83,803 and $100,301, which can reinforce resistance until demand strengthens.
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