Key Takeaways:
- CFTC begins guidance and formal rulemaking on prediction markets and crypto perpetuals.
- Notice and comment process starts to standardize event contract listing and oversight.
- Nothing becomes final until rulemaking concludes and a final rule publishes.
According to Michael Selig, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will issue guidance and begin formal rulemaking today on prediction markets, DeFi, crypto perpetuals, and other event contracts. The move signals the start of a notice-and-comment process that could standardize how event contracts are listed, supervised, and enforced in U.S. markets.
Guidance can clarify how the agency interprets existing law, while formal rulemaking is required to create binding rules. Nothing becomes final until the rulemaking concludes and a final rule is adopted and published.
Industry groups have pushed for predictable criteria on what may be self-certified, what requires review, and what is out of bounds. According to the Coalition for Prediction Markets, clearer, rules-based standards would provide legal certainty for platforms while supporting compliant innovation.
The agency is expected to address the boundary between permissible and prohibited event contracts, including categories adjacent to politics, sports, and public policy. As reported by Cointelegraph, concerns about potential “state encroachment” highlight friction between federal derivatives authority and state gaming laws that may still apply to gambling-like products.
Lawmakers have pressed for categorical exclusions that reflect federal prohibitions involving real-world harm. A February 13, 2026 letter from more than 20 Democratic senators led by Adam Schiff urged the agency to “prohibit prediction markets incentivizing physical injury, death, or war.”
Public-interest advocates are also focused on market integrity and consumer protection risks tied to manipulation, loss, and misleading products. “Prediction markets are casinos,” said Benjamin Schiffrin, Director of Securities Policy at Better Markets, warning that dismantling guardrails could endanger retail users.
For platforms, practical implications may include clearer self-certification criteria, defined registration pathways, and baseline controls for surveillance, disclosures, and conflict management. These items could reduce legal ambiguity but will remain proposals until the rulemaking record is developed and finalized.
Stakeholders typically engage through public comment once a proposal is published, after which the agency may revise and finalize rules. Until then, existing statutes and enforcement frameworks continue to govern activity, and any new guidance should be read alongside applicable federal and state laws.
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