Bitcoin and gold fell on November 10, 2026, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he supports raising interest rates at the Fed’s December meeting. His remarks sent market-implied odds of a December rate hike surging to their highest level in months, pushing investors away from riskier assets and toward the U.S. dollar.
Key Takeaways: December Fed rate-hike bets rise as bitcoin and gold pull back
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on November 10, 2026 that he supports a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate increase at the December 8-9 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
- Market-implied odds of a December hike jumped from 76.3% to 96.3% after his speech, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool. This reflects what futures traders expect, not a confirmed Fed decision.
- Bitcoin dropped toward $74,000 and gold fell below $4,100 per ounce on the same day. Both assets tend to lose ground when higher interest rates appear more likely, because rising rates make cash and bonds more attractive by comparison.
It is important to note that a 96.3% probability reflects what futures markets are pricing in. The Fed has not yet made any official announcement. The December 8-9 FOMC meeting is when policymakers will make the final call. For related coverage, see Bitcoin Back Above $77,500 as XRP Leads Majors on Lower Fed Hike Odds.
Why traders are repricing the odds of a December Fed move
Waller delivered his remarks in London on November 10. He described September inflation data as offering no positive signals. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.5% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year in September, according to CoinTelegraph’s reporting on the speech. Context on this theme: Bitcoin Falls $3K as Fed Hike Bets Surge, but Analyst Stays Bullish.
Waller made his position clear in direct terms: “While I am hoping for an improvement over September, even if this occurs, I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC’s policy rate at our December meeting.”
“However, if inflation comes in substantially higher than I expect, more robust action by the FOMC may be called for.”
— Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve Governor, November 10, 2026
That second statement is significant. Waller indicated that a 50 basis point hike “should be considered” if the October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading comes in at 0.3% month-over-month or higher, according to Crypto Briefing. That means December holds an asymmetric risk: a 25 basis point hike appears almost certain, but a larger 50 basis point move remains possible depending on the upcoming inflation print.
A 25 basis point hike would push the Fed’s benchmark rate from its current range of 3.75%-4.00% up to 4.00%-4.25%. Higher rates increase the return available on cash and government bonds, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold. This is part of why both assets sold off on the news. This dynamic also played out earlier this year, when bitcoin fell $3,000 as Fed hike bets surged in a similar repricing episode.
Bitcoin and gold reaction: levels and catalysts to watch next
Earlier in the session, Bitstamp data showed bitcoin touching $74,080, down 1.3% on the day, per CoinTelegraph’s reporting.
Gold fell more than 1% to below $4,100 per ounce on the same day, according to Bloomingbit. Gold, like bitcoin, does not pay interest or dividends. When interest rates rise, bonds and savings accounts become relatively more attractive, and investors often rotate out of both metals and crypto.
Nasdaq 100 futures also dropped 0.4% on the day, per CoinTelegraph, suggesting the selling pressure was not limited to crypto. The broad risk-off mood reflects how higher borrowing costs can weigh on growth stocks and speculative assets alike.
Investors who have watched bitcoin’s relationship with Fed policy may recall that bitcoin has held its ground through previous rate hike scares, though outcomes have varied depending on the size of the eventual move and broader macro conditions. At current odds, markets are essentially treating a December 25 basis point hike as a done deal. What remains uncertain is whether October CPI data, due before the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, could tip Waller and colleagues toward a larger 50 basis point increase. That inflation print is now the clearest near-term catalyst to watch for anyone holding bitcoin or other risk assets.
For someone holding a small amount of bitcoin or thinking about their first purchase, the core takeaway is straightforward. The Fed is likely to make borrowing more expensive in December, and that tends to put short-term pressure on assets like bitcoin and gold. It does not mean those assets will keep falling indefinitely, but it does explain why both are pulling back now. Watching the October CPI release and the Fed’s December meeting statement will give the clearest signal about what comes next. Those wanting more context on how bitcoin has responded to past rate decisions can follow how bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 after a prior Fed rate rise and how Treasury dynamics interacted with Fed hike odds in a comparable setup.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
