Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said the Pentagon estimates the war with Iran will last four to six weeks, framing the U.S.-led conflict as a contained, weeks-long operation rather than an extended military campaign. The statement carries direct implications for crypto markets, where Bitcoin has already surged 14% since the conflict began on February 28.
Hassett’s Statement: A Short War, Not a Long Campaign
Hassett made the remarks during a CBS Face the Nation appearance on March 15, 2026, on day 16 of the conflict. As the president’s top economic advisor, Hassett’s framing signals the White House views this as a limited engagement with a defined endpoint.
“Four to six weeks to complete this mission and that we’re ahead of schedule,” Hassett told CBS.
He confirmed the U.S. has spent $12 billion in the first two weeks of operations but deflected questions about total projected costs, saying only, “Right now, we’ve got what we need,” without requesting a congressional supplemental funding package.
Hassett also dismissed concerns about economic blowback. “America is not going to have its economy harmed by what the Iranians are doing,” he said, pointing to domestic oil production capacity as a buffer against supply disruptions.
The conflict began February 28, 2026, with coordinated U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure. The “weeks, not months” framing positions this as closer to a surgical operation than an open-ended war, a distinction that matters for how markets price risk.
How the Iran Conflict Is Moving Crypto Prices
Bitcoin traded at $73,709 as of March 17, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 28, firmly in “Fear” territory. The elevated fear reading reflects macro uncertainty, but the price action tells a different story.
When the war began on February 28, Bitcoin initially dropped from roughly $66,000 toward $63,000, erasing an estimated $128 billion in total crypto market capitalization within minutes. Traditional equity markets were closed at the time, making crypto the only liquid outlet for risk repricing.
Since that initial selloff, Bitcoin has recovered sharply, gaining approximately 14% from the war’s start and pushing above $75,000 before pulling back slightly. That performance has outpaced both gold and the S&P 500 over the same period, reinforcing the “digital gold” narrative during geopolitical crises. The pattern echoes institutional Bitcoin accumulation strategies that have accelerated throughout 2026.
The 24/7 nature of crypto trading proved critical during the initial panic. With stock exchanges closed on the evening of February 28, Bitcoin absorbed the first wave of geopolitical repricing, functioning as the de facto global liquidity pool. This dynamic, where Bitcoin acts as a safe haven while traditional markets are shuttered, is a structural advantage that geopolitical events continue to highlight.
What a Short Conflict Means for Markets Going Forward
Hassett’s “weeks, not months” framing is the most bullish signal risk assets could receive from the White House right now. If accurate, it implies the geopolitical risk premium currently weighing on markets has a defined expiration date.
“The global economy is going to have a big positive shock as soon as this is over,” Hassett said. Futures markets appear to agree, with Hassett citing expectations for a “rapid, rapid end to the situation.”
Historical precedent supports a recovery thesis. When the U.S. killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in January 2020, Bitcoin initially sold off before recovering within days as tensions de-escalated. A contained, short-duration conflict would follow a similar playbook: initial fear-driven selling, followed by a relief rally as risk premiums unwind.
The critical variable is whether the four-to-six-week timeline holds. If the conflict extends beyond that window, the market calculus shifts significantly. A prolonged engagement would sustain elevated oil prices, complicate Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations through inflationary pressure, and keep the Fear & Greed Index depressed.
Three watchpoints will determine whether the “short war” thesis plays out:
- Oil prices and Strait of Hormuz disruption: The Trump administration has threatened to strike Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. Any sustained disruption to Middle Eastern oil flows would extend the inflationary shock.
- Pentagon operational updates: Hassett referenced being “ahead of schedule,” but the $12 billion burn rate in just two weeks suggests costs could escalate quickly if the timeline slips.
- Escalation signals: Trump has reportedly suggested Iran’s supreme leader “is not alive,” though this remains unconfirmed by independent sources. Any major escalation, or conversely, ceasefire talks, would reprice crypto rapidly in either direction.
For now, Bitcoin’s 14% gain since the conflict started suggests traders are pricing in a contained scenario. If Hassett’s timeline proves accurate, the unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums could provide further tailwind for crypto through April. If it doesn’t, the Fear & Greed Index at 28 may be just the beginning.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
